Friday, March 16, 2007

Katrina Deja Vu

Katrina Deja Vu

Pacific is going to be cold and have a La Niña. What we can expect are the winds are going to be ideal for creating hurricanes and aiming them at the East Coast. I wouldn't be surprised if we have at least two hits in the Gulf oil producing area. I'm not saying two hits both in the American area because Mexico has a lot of production in the Gulf, but I expect at least two hurricanes in the Gulf oil production area. La Niña winds are also ideal for aiming hurricanes into North Carolina. So I would say that the gulf and North Carolina are at quite a bit of risk.

This summer, a lot of it depends on when the La Niña occurs. If the La Niña has not appeared during the summer, then we can expect a hot summer. If we have an La Niña starting in the middle of summer, then instead we're going to see that blast of heat throughout the Midwest and the grain belt.

If the heat wave blasts in July when the corn is silking, then it really destroys the quality of the corn crop. If it hits in July, it’s going to really affect our corn production, and that’s bad news because our ethanol demand is very high.

One of the things people don't think of but coal-burning plants, and nuclear plants need water to cool off their equipment, and if the water gets warm; they can't cool off the equipment. And they end up having to cut back electrical production. So you have the heat raising electrical demand, and yet the heat makes it, so they have to cut back production – and that really creates tension.


In May and August, the CPC posts the Hurricane Outlook Discussion, which analyzes climate influences on and expected hurricane activity for the Atlantic and Caribbean basins during June to November.


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