Monday, February 26, 2007

Gold & Oil Bull-Seasons

If you want to add gold or related positions to your portfolios, the best time seasonally is when gold is languishing near its seasonal support. This tends to happen in late March / early April, late July, and early November. Off of each of these three major seasonal buying points marked above, gold’s trio of seasonal rallies tend to launch.

If you want to buy gold, the weakest months are very close to the annual weakest spots. Mid-March, late July, and mid-October tend to be the worst spots for gold seasonally when indexed monthly.

On average gold rallies from early Nov to early Feb, a big 3-month span. This rally is exceptionally strong too. It is the only rally of the year that breaks out well above gold’s seasonal resistance.

Crude Oil has a seasonal tendency to:
- Bottom in late June to early July
- Rally in mid-Sep to early Oct
- Decline into Nov to Dec

In May, XOI tends to correct to its seasonal support for the first time since early Feb rally. Mid-May is a high-probability-for-success time to add new long-positions in oil stocks.

Oil stocks tend to have their sharpest and biggest seasonal surge of the year at the end of August. XOI summer rally climaxes at the end of Sep. Late Sep is likely to be the best time seasonally to realise your profits.

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