Doom Tis Me

Rational To Be Over-Prepared

I would like to respond to the annoying suggestion that we doomers are crazy, psychologically off, unhappy, irrational, all generally desirous of the world's destruction. We’re not. We are your neighbors and friends and colleagues. We are just as sane as you, and likely we do not want to see a collapse.

A basic rule of emergency preparedness, whether it is for a flat tire or a hurricane: prepare for the worst-case scenario, not for what you believe likely. I have never had a flat, but I certainly have a jack in my car, as well as flares and a small medical kit. One cannot go to extremes – I cannot carry in my car a new engine, all the tools necessary to change it, as well as an emergency ham radio. One has to balance out the diversion of energy, time, and other resources, and there is no clear formula.

I do not believe in a “hard crash.” A long-term, ever-deepening depression seems like the most likely scenario. I am not, however, preparing for the scenario I believe most likely. I am preparing for the what I do not expect will happen, the worst-case scenario, because that is logically what makes the most sense.

We have been distracted by the debate about why some of us believe in a possible crash. This debate cannot be resolved and is only marginally useful. Much more important is the quite rational and eminently resolvable debate on the logic of various preparations, or their value in different situations. It is better to be over-prepared, instead of under-prepared.