Post-Abundance
Post-Abundance Era
If there is one thing that most inhabitants of the late 20th century shared in common, it was a perception of rising global abundance in virtually all fields. Most people in most places around the world saw a rise in their personal income and an increase in the number of things in their possession, along with the supply of energy to move or power their many personal goods.
The sense of abundance that characterized the late 20th century is likely to evaporate for the great majority of us. Now-affordable luxuries such as overseas vacations and meals out will become unattainable, and basic necessities such as energy, electricity, water and food are likely to become less plentiful and more expensive. This global austerity will produce great hardship for the poor and will force even lower-middle-class families to choose from among long car trips, restaurant meals, air-conditioning, etc.
This historic shift in global fortunes is a fundamental reversal in the balance between resource supply and demand. Many of the world's most promising sources of supply have been located and exploited, and exploration and discovery are producing increasingly meager results. We are increasingly relying on deposits found in previous decades to slake our insatiable thirst for petroleum - a pattern that cannot continue for much longer before we will begin to experience an irreversible and traumatic decline in the global supply of oil. The same is true of other vital resources, including natural gas, uranium, copper, and many minerals. There is not enough new deposits of these commodities to replace what we're consuming. So future shortages are inevitable.
This contraction in the global supply of vital resources will affect our lives in myriad ways. It will force us to consume less. These cutbacks will be minor inconveniences for some, but significant hardships for the poor, the elderly, and others on a fixed income.
The end of abundance is not the same thing as outright scarcity. Some commodities, such as oil, may become truly scarce but they will not disappear altogether. But the end of abundance will create a new gestalt in which expectations are lowered and struggles over what remains become more violent.
If there is one thing that most inhabitants of the late 20th century shared in common, it was a perception of rising global abundance in virtually all fields. Most people in most places around the world saw a rise in their personal income and an increase in the number of things in their possession, along with the supply of energy to move or power their many personal goods.
The sense of abundance that characterized the late 20th century is likely to evaporate for the great majority of us. Now-affordable luxuries such as overseas vacations and meals out will become unattainable, and basic necessities such as energy, electricity, water and food are likely to become less plentiful and more expensive. This global austerity will produce great hardship for the poor and will force even lower-middle-class families to choose from among long car trips, restaurant meals, air-conditioning, etc.This historic shift in global fortunes is a fundamental reversal in the balance between resource supply and demand. Many of the world's most promising sources of supply have been located and exploited, and exploration and discovery are producing increasingly meager results. We are increasingly relying on deposits found in previous decades to slake our insatiable thirst for petroleum - a pattern that cannot continue for much longer before we will begin to experience an irreversible and traumatic decline in the global supply of oil. The same is true of other vital resources, including natural gas, uranium, copper, and many minerals. There is not enough new deposits of these commodities to replace what we're consuming. So future shortages are inevitable.
This contraction in the global supply of vital resources will affect our lives in myriad ways. It will force us to consume less. These cutbacks will be minor inconveniences for some, but significant hardships for the poor, the elderly, and others on a fixed income.The end of abundance is not the same thing as outright scarcity. Some commodities, such as oil, may become truly scarce but they will not disappear altogether. But the end of abundance will create a new gestalt in which expectations are lowered and struggles over what remains become more violent.
posted by Sleeplesserf at 3:43 AM
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