Economic Pi-Cycles

The Economic Confidence Cycle (8.6 years) and its subsets have been very reliable in the gold market. We established trading rules in the 1980's that identified important highs around the date and lows in the weeks following the cycle date.

In a rising market the cycle date offers an opportunity to lighten-up on long gold related positions and re-establish them on a hard break.

http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2007/03/free_martin_arm.html

http://princetoneconomics.blogspot.com/2006/06/economic-confidence-model.html

HIGH mid-date is 2007/2/27
LOW -3/8 date is 2008/3/27
HIGH -1/4 date is 2009/4/23
The -1/8 date is 2010/5/21
LOW cycle date is 2011/6/18

Peak in gold and commodities between 2007 and 2012 (2010)

The 1/8 date is 2012/7/15
HIGH 1/4 date is 2013/8/12
LOW 3/8 date is 2014/9/9
HIGH mid-date is 2015/10/6
LOW -3/8 date is 2016/11/3
HIGH -1/4 date is 2017/12/1
The -1/8 date is 2018/12/28
LOW cycle date is 2020/1/25

The 1/8 date is 2021/2/22
HIGH 1/4 date is 2022/3/22
LOW 3/8 date is 2023/4/19
HIGH mid-date is 2024/5/16
LOW -3/8 date is 2025/6/13
HIGH -1/4 date is 2026/7/10
The -1/8 date is 2027/8/7
LOW cycle date is 2028/9/4

The 1/8 date is 2029/10/1
HIGH 1/4 date is 2030/10/29
LOW 3/8 date is 2031/11/26
HIGH mid-date is 2032/12/23
LOW -3/8 date is 2034/1/20
HIGH -1/4 date is 2035/2/17
The -1/8 date is 2036/3/16
LOW cycle date is 2037/4/13

The 1/8 date is 2038/5/11
HIGH 1/4 date is 2039/6/8
LOW 3/8 date is 2040/7/6
HIGH mid-date is 2041/8/2
LOW -3/8 date is 2042/8/30
HIGH -1/4 date is 2043/9/26
The -1/8 date is 2044/10/24
LOW cycle date is 2045/11/21

The Pi model is global, not just US. And it means that for every significant date, the peak/bottom can be anywhere in the world in any type of market. Obviously, it won’t be a tiny stock market in an isolated island country. For example, it can be Asia as a whole.

Not every peak/bottom in the Pi model will generate a peak/bottom in some markets. Only with more likelihood, especially for mid-cycle and cycle dates.